Headline
Figures
The claimant count in Worcestershire in November 2012
decreased by 203 to 10,114, 552 lower than the number of claimants in November
2011. This is 2.9% of the 16-64
population, which remains below the regional and national levels. The
greatest decrease in absolute terms (between November 2011 and November 2012)
took place in Redditch and Worcester with a fall of 205 and 206 claimants
respectively.
The urban centre with the highest proportion of claimants
aged 16-64 is Kidderminster with 4.2% and the lowest proportion is in Wythall
at 1.6%. In Worcestershire's urban areas the
proportion of claimants aged 16-64 is 3.3%, which is 0.4% higher than the
county as a whole.
After a significant rise (from around 1.5%), the
Worcestershire claimant rate reached a peak in April 2009. Since
the middle of 2010 the proportion of claimants has stabilised around 3.1%, with
some seasonal effects related to Christmas and summer employment.
Long Term Unemployment
The proportion of claimants who have been receiving of Job
Seekers Allowance between 6 and 12 months has decreased by 7.7 percentage
points to 14.7% since November 2011. It is now the lowest that it has been
since December 2010 but the proportion receiving JSA for more than 12 months
has increased by 7.9 percentage points over the same period to 22.3% of all
claimants. The number of people claiming
for 6-12 months has declined due to them either finding employment or falling
into the category of claiming for more than 12 months.
If a person is unemployed for an extended period of time
there is an increasing likelihood of them becoming disengaged from the labour
market.
Claimants Leaving the Unemployment
Count
2,435 people left the claimant count in November 2012, of
those people 46.2% have found employment and a further 40.9% are either 'not
known' or have 'failed to sign'; it is possible that some of these people have
also found employment.
Youth Unemployment –
Claimants
Aged 18-24
In October 2012 the number of claimants aged 18-24 was
2,875 which is a decrease of 135 compared to October 2012 and 340 fewer compared
to November 2011. The proportion of claimants aged 18-24
is 6.9%, the same as the England average but below the West Midlands average
(8.7).
The districts with the highest proportion of claimants
aged 18-24 were Redditch (7.9%) and Wyre Forest (8.5%), the greatest decrease
in absolute terms (between November 2011 and November 2012) took place in Redditch
with a fall of 160 claimants. The
figures for individual wards are no longer so easily available but I am happy
to find them should anyone want them.
After a significant rise, the Worcestershire 18-24 claimant
rate reached a peak in August 2009 though it has since fallen with some
seasonal effects related to Christmas and summer employment; however it is yet
to reach pre-recession levels. It is
important to reduce the number of 18-24 year olds in unemployment, as it
affects people at the very start of their working lives. A period of
unemployment at this stage increases the likelihood of an individual becoming
disengaged from the labour market and impacting their lifetime earnings
potential.
National
Picture
For information about the national picture see the BBCreport here. This shows that Worcestershire
broadly follows the national picture, though we are generally in a better
position. However, one should never overlook those places that are more
significantly impacted and the effect on individuals wherever they are.
The BBC’s Economics Editor, Stephanie Flanders, has an
interesting analysis of the national figures here. One would hope that there has been some pre-Christmas
hiring (which may well be temporary) and this may be contributing to improved figures
and sentiment. On the other hand, as
Flanders points out, comparing the July to September quarterly unemployment
figures with the June to August figures rather than the April to June figures
shows the fall in unemployment is much lower and may be reflected in the
claimant count figures which tend to be more sensitive. Not wishing to throw too much cold water on
the headline good news, one also notes that the OBR are predicting unemployment
to rise to 8.2% before falling at some point in the cycle (as compared with 7.8%
now) so a reverse of the trend is on the cards at some point.
Earnings
Flanders also makes the point about lower real earnings
and I saw elsewhere attention drawn to a speech on 12 December given by Spencer Dale, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, who notes the “extraordinary
flexibility” shown in the labour market. Real wages, measured in terms of
consumer prices, have fallen by over 15% compared with the pre-crisis trend. So
“no wonder that people are finding life tough”.
Many of us have had below inflation pay-rises, but for those who are
underemployed in the current terminology (i.e. are working less or in poorer
paid jobs than they would like) are the ones most affected by this trend. Declining productivity in the economy (i.e.
taking more people to produce goods that used to be the case) may be a worry
for economists and perhaps for the economy of the country in the long-term if
the trend is not reversed, but it has a very direct impact on the individuals
affected in the present. Dale also says: “The harsh but inescapable reality of these developments – and the real
adjustments they necessitate – is that households and families in our economy
are worse off. Much worse off.” “The less we
produce” and the less “we can purchase using the proceeds from our domestically
produced output”, “the less we can ultimately consume”. It is a matter
of judgement whether the trade-off of some or maybe many people taking a cut in
earnings is better than the higher unemployment that has been seen in previous
recessions. And the longer the debts,
both private and public takes to unwind so that the longer the recession lasts
the harder these effects become for the people affected.
